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FIVFIV 98d 25-01-2012 20:37:38 C:\FIVSIN\INPUT.FIV INPUT CONTROL FILE FOR PROJECTION 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 12345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890 WEST YEAR.TITLE YR.2010.Kabupaten INIT.POP INIT.F.A 3926 5842 5611 5228 5607 7934 7293 INIT.F.B 6258 6134 5504 4719 3535 2772 2270 INIT.F.C 1771 2840 INIT.M.A 4248 6308 6099 5590 5568 7578 7627 INIT.M.B 6548 6120 5075 4547 3531 2628 1997 INIT.M.C 1373 1883 MORTALITY MORT.EZ.F 72.84 72.94 73.05 73.16 73.26 73.36 73.47 MORT.EZ.M 70.1 70.19 70.27 70.34 70.42 70.58 70.6 FERTILITY TOTAL.FERT 2.359 2.367 2.375 2.384 2.392 2.4 2.409 FERDIST1.7 7.418 24.926 27.596 20.178 10.682 2.967 6.231 FEND MIGRATION RATES MIGRF1.7.A -2.0377 -2.3964 -1.2475 -1.7215 -6.7772 -9.3269 -3.8393 MIGRF1.7.B -3.3557 -2.1193 -2.907 .4238 -.8487 -1.0823 -1.7621 MIGRF1.7.C 0 -.7042 MIGRM1.7.A -1.8832 -2.0609 -.8198 -3.5778 -2.5144 -3.8269 -4.589 MIGRM1.7.B -2.5962 -2.9412 -1.7734 -1.7594 -2.8321 -.761 -2.003 MIGRM1.7.C -.7283 -.5311 MEND.1 END PROJECTI 1Kabupaten Pg 1 FERTILITY Sex ratio at birth: 105.0 Males per 100 Females DISTRIBUTION BY AGE OF FERTILITY (Percent) 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- AGE 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 15-19 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 20-24 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 25-29 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 30-34 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 35-39 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 40-44 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 45-49 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY SCHEDULE 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- AGE 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 15-19 .035 .035 .035 .035 .035 .036 .036 20-24 .118 .118 .118 .119 .119 .120 .120 25-29 .130 .131 .131 .132 .132 .132 .133 30-34 .095 .096 .096 .096 .097 .097 .097 35-39 .050 .051 .051 .051 .051 .051 .051 40-44 .014 .014 .014 .014 .014 .014 .014 45-49 .029 .029 .030 .030 .030 .030 .030 TOT*5=TFR 2.359 2.367 2.375 2.384 2.392 2.400 2.409 GRR 1.151 1.155 1.159 1.163 1.167 1.171 1.175 NRR 1.102 1.106 1.111 1.116 1.120 1.124 1.129 MEAN AGE 29.280 29.280 29.280 29.280 29.280 29.280 29.280 MORTALITY 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- WEST 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 E(0) FEMALES 72.84 72.94 73.05 73.16 73.26 73.36 73.47 E(0) MALES 70.10 70.19 70.27 70.34 70.42 70.58 70.60 E(0) BOTH 71.44 71.53 71.63 71.72 71.81 71.94 72.00 IMR FEMALES 21.80 21.50 21.17 20.84 20.54 20.24 19.91 IMR MALES 25.03 24.68 24.37 24.09 23.78 23.16 23.08 IMR BOTH 23.46 23.13 22.81 22.51 22.20 21.73 21.53 E(5) FEMALES 69.78 69.86 69.94 70.02 70.10 70.17 70.26 E(5) MALES 67.24 67.31 67.36 67.41 67.46 67.58 67.59 E(5) BOTH 68.48 68.55 68.62 68.68 68.75 68.84 68.89 1Kabupaten Pg 2 YEARLY MIGRANTS (NET) PER 1000 POPULATION: ASSUMPTIONS Rates by age at the end of the five-year period 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- AGE 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 FEMALES 0-4 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 5-9 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 10-14 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 15-19 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 20-24 -6.8 -6.8 -6.8 -6.8 -6.8 -6.8 -6.8 25-29 -9.3 -9.3 -9.3 -9.3 -9.3 -9.3 -9.3 30-34 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 35-39 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 40-44 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 45-49 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 50-54 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 55-59 -.8 -.8 -.8 -.8 -.8 -.8 -.8 60-64 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 65-69 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 70-74 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 75+ -.7 -.7 -.7 -.7 -.7 -.7 -.7 MALES 0-4 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 5-9 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 10-14 -.8 -.8 -.8 -.8 -.8 -.8 -.8 15-19 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 20-24 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 25-29 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 30-34 -4.6 -4.6 -4.6 -4.6 -4.6 -4.6 -4.6 35-39 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 40-44 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 45-49 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 50-54 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 55-59 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 60-64 -.8 -.8 -.8 -.8 -.8 -.8 -.8 65-69 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 70-74 -.7 -.7 -.7 -.7 -.7 -.7 -.7 75+ -.5 -.5 -.5 -.5 -.5 -.5 -.5 1Kabupaten Pg 3 QUANTITIES OF ACTUAL MIGRANTS (YEARLY) BY COHORT. Cohorts are indexed by age at end of period Rates assumed by cohort were applied to mid-period population of same cohort 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- AGE 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 FEMALES 0-4 -7.3 -6.7 -6.3 -5.9 -5.9 -6.1 -6.3 5-9 -9.4 -16.9 -15.5 -14.4 -13.7 -13.6 -14.1 10-14 -7.3 -4.8 -8.7 -7.9 -7.4 -7.0 -7.0 15-19 -9.6 -10.0 -6.6 -11.9 -10.9 -10.1 -9.6 20-24 -35.4 -37.6 -38.8 -25.7 -46.2 -42.2 -39.3 25-29 -52.2 -46.8 -49.7 -51.4 -34.0 -61.2 -56.0 30-34 -30.4 -20.4 -18.3 -19.4 -20.1 -13.3 -23.9 35-39 -24.4 -25.9 -17.4 -15.6 -16.6 -17.1 -11.3 40-44 -13.2 -15.0 -15.9 -10.7 -9.6 -10.2 -10.5 45-49 -17.7 -17.7 -20.1 -21.4 -14.3 -12.9 -13.7 50-54 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.0 2.0 1.8 55-59 -3.9 -4.5 -4.9 -4.9 -5.5 -5.9 -3.9 60-64 -3.7 -4.8 -5.5 -5.9 -5.9 -6.7 -7.1 65-69 -4.7 -5.6 -7.2 -8.2 -8.9 -8.9 -10.1 70-74 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 75-79 -1.1 -1.2 -1.3 -1.6 -2.1 -2.3 -2.5 80+ -.9 -.9 -.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.4 -1.6 TOTAL -218.9 -216.2 -214.5 -203.0 -199.1 -216.9 -215.3 MALES 0-4 -7.1 -6.5 -6.0 -5.7 -5.7 -5.9 -6.1 5-9 -8.7 -15.2 -13.9 -13.0 -12.3 -12.2 -12.7 10-14 -5.2 -3.4 -6.0 -5.5 -5.1 -4.8 -4.8 15-19 -21.8 -22.4 -14.9 -25.9 -23.6 -22.0 -20.9 20-24 -14.0 -15.0 -15.4 -10.2 -17.8 -16.2 -15.1 25-29 -21.2 -20.9 -22.4 -23.0 -15.2 -26.5 -24.3 30-34 -34.7 -24.8 -24.4 -26.1 -26.8 -17.8 -31.0 35-39 -19.7 -19.0 -13.6 -13.4 -14.3 -14.7 -9.8 40-44 -19.1 -21.8 -21.0 -15.1 -14.9 -15.9 -16.3 45-49 -10.8 -11.2 -12.8 -12.3 -8.8 -8.7 -9.3 50-54 -8.8 -10.3 -10.8 -12.3 -11.8 -8.5 -8.4 55-59 -12.6 -13.5 -15.9 -16.5 -18.8 -18.2 -13.0 60-64 -2.6 -3.1 -3.4 -3.9 -4.1 -4.7 -4.5 65-69 -5.0 -6.1 -7.4 -8.0 -9.4 -9.8 -11.2 70-74 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9 -2.3 -2.5 -2.9 -3.0 75-79 -.6 -.7 -.9 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.6 80+ -.4 -.4 -.5 -.6 -.7 -.8 -.9 TOTAL -193.6 -196.1 -191.0 -194.7 -193.2 -191.1 -193.0 GRAND TOTAL -412.5 -412.3 -405.5 -397.7 -392.2 -408.0 -408.3 1Kabupaten Pg 4 POPULATION PROJECTION FEMALES 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 FEMALES 0-4 3926.0 7067.3 6459.0 6016.5 5722.3 5663.8 5876.2 6104.0 0-4 5-9 5842.0 3865.7 6959.0 6360.3 5924.9 5635.4 5578.1 5787.5 5-9 10-14 5611.0 5795.1 3834.7 6903.5 6309.7 5877.9 5590.9 5534.1 10-14 15-19 5228.0 5550.2 5732.5 3793.4 6829.4 6242.2 5815.1 5531.4 15-19 20-24 5607.0 5033.8 5344.2 5520.0 3653.1 6577.0 6011.8 5600.8 20-24 25-29 7934.0 5321.9 4778.1 5073.2 5240.4 3468.2 6244.7 5708.4 25-29 30-34 7293.0 7738.8 5191.4 4661.4 4949.6 5113.2 3384.3 6094.1 30-34 35-39 6258.0 7119.0 7554.8 5068.5 4551.4 4833.3 4993.5 3305.4 35-39 40-44 6134.0 6129.4 6973.4 7401.2 4965.9 4459.8 4736.5 4894.0 40-44 45-49 5504.0 5953.8 5950.1 6770.4 7186.7 4822.6 4331.6 4601.0 45-49 50-54 4719.0 5388.9 5830.4 5827.9 6632.6 7041.6 4726.1 4245.8 50-54 55-59 3535.0 4535.0 5180.2 5606.1 5605.4 6381.0 6776.3 4549.4 55-59 60-64 2772.0 3324.6 4266.8 4876.0 5279.3 5280.7 6013.9 6389.3 60-64 65-69 2270.0 2504.5 3005.8 3860.5 4414.9 4783.3 4787.7 5456.4 65-69 70-74 1771.0 1937.2 2139.5 2570.7 3305.4 3784.0 4103.9 4112.3 70-74 75+ 2840.0 2772.7 2868.0 3073.9 3510.1 4294.6 5064.1 5708.3 75+ TOTAL 77244.0 80037.9 82068.0 83383.5 84081.1 84258.7 84034.8 83622.3 TOTAL MALES 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 MALES 0-4 4248.0 7397.0 6760.6 6297.3 5989.1 5927.9 6152.4 6389.0 0-4 5-9 6308.0 4186.2 7289.8 6662.9 6206.5 5902.9 5843.1 6064.4 5-9 10-14 6099.0 6266.3 4158.6 7241.9 6619.3 6166.0 5864.6 5805.2 10-14 15-19 5590.0 5969.0 6133.0 4070.3 7088.2 6478.9 6035.6 5740.6 15-19 20-24 5568.0 5488.1 5860.4 6021.5 3996.4 6959.7 6361.8 5926.5 20-24 25-29 7578.0 5424.3 5346.6 5709.5 5866.6 3893.7 6781.3 6198.8 25-29 30-34 7627.0 7351.6 5262.5 5187.3 5539.6 5692.3 3778.3 6580.3 30-34 35-39 6548.0 7464.3 7195.2 5150.9 5077.5 5422.7 5572.7 3699.0 35-39 40-44 6120.0 6377.1 7270.2 7008.7 5017.7 4946.7 5283.9 5430.2 40-44 45-49 5075.0 5956.5 6207.7 7078.0 6824.2 4886.3 4818.5 5147.0 45-49 50-54 4547.0 4882.8 5732.2 5975.0 6813.9 6570.8 4706.7 4641.5 50-54 55-59 3531.0 4269.3 4586.0 5385.3 5614.8 6404.9 6179.9 4427.0 55-59 60-64 2628.0 3251.7 3933.4 4227.0 4965.5 5179.2 5912.9 5705.8 60-64 65-69 1997.0 2298.5 2846.2 3445.2 3704.5 4354.5 4548.0 5193.1 65-69 70-74 1373.0 1632.7 1881.3 2331.8 2825.0 3040.6 3581.2 3741.2 70-74 75+ 1883.0 1888.5 2081.0 2355.4 2815.3 3396.7 3842.0 4450.2 75+ TOTAL 76720.0 80104.0 82544.8 84148.0 84964.0 85223.9 85262.9 85140.0 TOTAL GRAND TOTAL 153964.0 160141.9 164612.8 167531.5 169045.1 169482.6 169297.7 168762.3 GRAND TOTAL MIDPERIOD INDICES FOR FIVE-YEAR TIME PERIODS 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 POPULATION SIZE 157022.6 162362.0 166065.8 168286.6 169263.7 169390.1 169029.8 POPULATION SIZE YEARLY BIRTHS 2984.1 2726.4 2538.6 2413.6 2388.2 2476.9 2571.9 YEARLY BIRTHS YEARLY DEATHS 1336.1 1419.9 1549.4 1713.2 1908.4 2105.9 2270.8 YEARLY DEATHS NET YEARLY MIGRANTS -412.5 -412.3 -405.5 -397.7 -392.2 -408.0 -408.3 NET YEARLY MIGRANTS YEARLY RATES PER THOUSAND POPULATION GFR=BIRTHS/FEM(15-44) 79.2 75.2 75.7 78.2 78.5 80.1 82.5 GFR=BIRTHS/F(15-44) BIRTH RATE 19.0 16.8 15.3 14.3 14.1 14.6 15.2 BIRTH RATE DEATH RATE 8.5 8.7 9.3 10.2 11.3 12.4 13.4 DEATH RATE NATURAL INCREASE 10.5 8.0 6.0 4.2 2.8 2.2 1.8 NATURAL INCREASE NET MIGRATION -2.6 -2.5 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.4 -2.4 NET MIGRATION POP INCREASE 7.9 5.5 3.5 1.8 .5 -.2 -.6 POP INCREASE 1Kabupaten Pg 5 RATES OF CHANGE IN POPULATION BY AGE GROUP (Percent per year) 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- AGE 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 FEMALES 0-4 11.76 -1.80 -1.42 -1.00 -.21 .74 .76 5-9 -8.26 11.76 -1.80 -1.42 -1.00 -.20 .74 10-14 .65 -8.26 11.76 -1.80 -1.42 -1.00 -.20 15-19 1.20 .65 -8.26 11.76 -1.80 -1.42 -1.00 20-24 -2.16 1.20 .65 -8.26 11.76 -1.80 -1.42 25-29 -7.99 -2.16 1.20 .65 -8.26 11.76 -1.80 30-34 1.19 -7.98 -2.15 1.20 .65 -8.25 11.76 35-39 2.58 1.19 -7.98 -2.15 1.20 .65 -8.25 40-44 -.02 2.58 1.19 -7.98 -2.15 1.20 .65 45-49 1.57 -.01 2.58 1.19 -7.98 -2.15 1.21 50-54 2.66 1.57 -.01 2.59 1.20 -7.97 -2.14 55-59 4.98 2.66 1.58 .00 2.59 1.20 -7.97 60-64 3.64 4.99 2.67 1.59 .01 2.60 1.21 65-69 1.97 3.65 5.00 2.68 1.60 .02 2.61 70-74 1.79 1.99 3.67 5.03 2.70 1.62 .04 75+ -.48 .68 1.39 2.65 4.03 3.30 2.39 TOTAL .71 .50 .32 .17 .04 -.05 -.10 MALES 0-4 11.09 -1.80 -1.42 -1.00 -.21 .74 .75 5-9 -8.20 11.09 -1.80 -1.42 -1.00 -.20 .74 10-14 .54 -8.20 11.09 -1.80 -1.42 -1.00 -.20 15-19 1.31 .54 -8.20 11.09 -1.80 -1.42 -1.00 20-24 -.29 1.31 .54 -8.20 11.09 -1.80 -1.42 25-29 -6.69 -.29 1.31 .54 -8.20 11.10 -1.80 30-34 -.74 -6.69 -.29 1.31 .54 -8.20 11.10 35-39 2.62 -.73 -6.69 -.29 1.32 .55 -8.20 40-44 .82 2.62 -.73 -6.68 -.29 1.32 .55 45-49 3.20 .83 2.62 -.73 -6.68 -.28 1.32 50-54 1.43 3.21 .83 2.63 -.73 -6.67 -.28 55-59 3.80 1.43 3.21 .83 2.63 -.72 -6.67 60-64 4.26 3.81 1.44 3.22 .84 2.65 -.71 65-69 2.81 4.27 3.82 1.45 3.23 .87 2.65 70-74 3.46 2.83 4.29 3.84 1.47 3.27 .87 75+ .06 1.94 2.48 3.57 3.75 2.46 2.94 TOTAL .86 .60 .38 .19 .06 .01 -.03 BOTH .79 .55 .35 .18 .05 -.02 -.06 The quality of information on rates of increase by age is safeguarded when genuine irregularities of the age distribution at the base date are preserved, while irregularities due to age shifting and heaping are removed. 1Kabupaten Pg 6 PROPORTIONS OF TOTAL POPULATION BY SEX (Percent) FEMALES 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 0-4 5.08 8.83 7.87 7.22 6.81 6.72 6.99 7.30 5-9 7.56 4.83 8.48 7.63 7.05 6.69 6.64 6.92 10-14 7.26 7.24 4.67 8.28 7.50 6.98 6.65 6.62 15-19 6.77 6.93 6.99 4.55 8.12 7.41 6.92 6.61 20-24 7.26 6.29 6.51 6.62 4.34 7.81 7.15 6.70 25-29 10.27 6.65 5.82 6.08 6.23 4.12 7.43 6.83 30-34 9.44 9.67 6.33 5.59 5.89 6.07 4.03 7.29 35-39 8.10 8.89 9.21 6.08 5.41 5.74 5.94 3.95 40-44 7.94 7.66 8.50 8.88 5.91 5.29 5.64 5.85 45-49 7.13 7.44 7.25 8.12 8.55 5.72 5.15 5.50 50-54 6.11 6.73 7.10 6.99 7.89 8.36 5.62 5.08 55-59 4.58 5.67 6.31 6.72 6.67 7.57 8.06 5.44 60-64 3.59 4.15 5.20 5.85 6.28 6.27 7.16 7.64 65-69 2.94 3.13 3.66 4.63 5.25 5.68 5.70 6.53 70-74 2.29 2.42 2.61 3.08 3.93 4.49 4.88 4.92 75+ 3.68 3.46 3.49 3.69 4.17 5.10 6.03 6.83 TOTAL 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 MALES 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 0-4 5.54 9.23 8.19 7.48 7.05 6.96 7.22 7.50 5-9 8.22 5.23 8.83 7.92 7.30 6.93 6.85 7.12 10-14 7.95 7.82 5.04 8.61 7.79 7.24 6.88 6.82 15-19 7.29 7.45 7.43 4.84 8.34 7.60 7.08 6.74 20-24 7.26 6.85 7.10 7.16 4.70 8.17 7.46 6.96 25-29 9.88 6.77 6.48 6.79 6.90 4.57 7.95 7.28 30-34 9.94 9.18 6.38 6.16 6.52 6.68 4.43 7.73 35-39 8.53 9.32 8.72 6.12 5.98 6.36 6.54 4.34 40-44 7.98 7.96 8.81 8.33 5.91 5.80 6.20 6.38 45-49 6.61 7.44 7.52 8.41 8.03 5.73 5.65 6.05 50-54 5.93 6.10 6.94 7.10 8.02 7.71 5.52 5.45 55-59 4.60 5.33 5.56 6.40 6.61 7.52 7.25 5.20 60-64 3.43 4.06 4.77 5.02 5.84 6.08 6.93 6.70 65-69 2.60 2.87 3.45 4.09 4.36 5.11 5.33 6.10 70-74 1.79 2.04 2.28 2.77 3.32 3.57 4.20 4.39 75+ 2.45 2.36 2.52 2.80 3.31 3.99 4.51 5.23 TOTAL 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 AGE 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 FEMALES 0-14 19.91 20.90 21.02 23.12 21.36 20.39 20.28 20.84 15-64 71.18 70.09 69.21 65.48 65.29 64.35 63.11 60.89 65+ 8.91 9.01 9.76 11.40 13.36 15.26 16.61 18.27 MALES 0-14 21.71 22.28 22.06 24.01 22.14 21.12 20.95 21.45 15-64 71.44 70.45 69.69 66.33 66.86 66.22 65.01 62.83 65+ 6.85 7.27 8.25 9.66 11.00 12.66 14.04 15.72 BOTH 0-14 20.81 21.59 21.54 23.57 21.75 20.75 20.62 21.14 15-64 71.31 70.27 69.45 65.90 66.08 65.29 64.07 61.87 65+ 7.88 8.14 9.00 10.53 12.17 13.96 15.31 16.98 'Both' is calculated from a table for both sexes which is not shown. MALES/FEMALES .993 1.001 1.006 1.009 1.011 1.011 1.015 1.018
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