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FIVFIV 98d 09-10-2011 11:28:06 MAKASSAR.FIV INPUT CONTROL FILE FOR PROJECTION 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 12345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890 WEST YEAR.TITLE YR.2010.PROYEKSI PENDUDUK MAKASSAR INIT.POP INIT.F.A 53896.00 64519.00 66210.00 83030.00 89627.00 82939.00 64451.00 INIT.F.B 47086.00 35020.00 26842.00 21005.00 16537.00 12703.00 9162.00 INIT.F.C 5614.00 5481.00 INIT.M.A 62502.00 64710.00 64584.00 76024.00 81905.00 78942.00 64734.00 INIT.M.B 48854.00 36619.00 27846.00 21297.00 16162.00 11780.00 8022.00 INIT.M.C 4776.00 4221.00 MORTALITY MORT.EZ.F 71.58 72.07 72.52 72.96 73.36 73.75 74.11 MORT.EZ.M 68.48 69.03 69.55 70.04 70.49 70.92 71.32 FERTILITY TOTAL.FERT 2.3880 2.3580 2.3300 2.3020 2.2750 2.2490 2.2250 FERDIST1.7 21.1800 69.7610 105.9520 100.1730 58.1880 19.9070 35.6900 FEND MIGRATION RATES MIGRF1.7.A 1.26 1.70 1.05 1.14 1.14 2.05 2.83 MIGRF1.7.B 3.25 2.93 2.23 1.56 1.09 .85 .74 MIGRF1.7.C .67 .58 MIGRM1.7.A 1.36 1.77 1.48 .90 .87 1.42 2.19 MIGRM1.7.B 2.94 2.98 2.43 1.79 1.32 1.02 .84 MIGRM1.7.C .69 .55 MEND END PROJECTI 1PROYEKSI PENDUDUK MAKASSAR Pg 1 FERTILITY Sex ratio at birth: 105.0 Males per 100 Females DISTRIBUTION BY AGE OF FERTILITY (Percent) 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- AGE 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 15-19 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 20-24 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 25-29 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 30-34 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 35-39 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 40-44 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 45-49 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY SCHEDULE 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- AGE 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 15-19 .025 .024 .024 .024 .023 .023 .023 20-24 .081 .080 .079 .078 .077 .076 .076 25-29 .123 .122 .120 .119 .117 .116 .115 30-34 .116 .115 .114 .112 .111 .110 .108 35-39 .068 .067 .066 .065 .064 .064 .063 40-44 .023 .023 .023 .022 .022 .022 .022 45-49 .041 .041 .040 .040 .040 .039 .039 TOT*5=TFR 2.388 2.358 2.330 2.302 2.275 2.249 2.225 GRR 1.165 1.150 1.137 1.123 1.110 1.097 1.085 NRR 1.102 1.092 1.083 1.073 1.063 1.054 1.045 MEAN AGE 31.235 31.235 31.235 31.235 31.235 31.235 31.235 MORTALITY 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- WEST 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 E(0) FEMALES 71.58 72.07 72.52 72.96 73.36 73.75 74.11 E(0) MALES 68.48 69.03 69.55 70.04 70.49 70.92 71.32 E(0) BOTH 69.99 70.51 71.00 71.46 71.89 72.30 72.68 IMR FEMALES 25.97 24.29 22.76 21.44 20.24 19.08 18.00 IMR MALES 31.38 29.21 27.18 25.27 23.51 21.83 19.07 IMR BOTH 28.74 26.81 25.02 23.40 21.91 20.48 18.55 E(5) FEMALES 68.90 69.24 69.54 69.87 70.17 70.46 70.73 E(5) MALES 66.12 66.50 66.86 67.20 67.51 67.81 67.99 E(5) BOTH 67.48 67.83 68.17 68.50 68.81 69.11 69.33 1PROYEKSI PENDUDUK MAKASSAR Pg 2 YEARLY MIGRANTS (NET) PER 1000 POPULATION: ASSUMPTIONS 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- AGE 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 FEMALES 0-4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 5-9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 10-14 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 15-19 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 20-24 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 25-29 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 30-34 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 35-39 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 40-44 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 45-49 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 50-54 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 55-59 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 60-64 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 65-69 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 70-74 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 75+ .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 MALES 0-4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 5-9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 10-14 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 15-19 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 20-24 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 25-29 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 30-34 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 35-39 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 40-44 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 45-49 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 50-54 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 55-59 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 60-64 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 65-69 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 70-74 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 75+ .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 1PROYEKSI PENDUDUK MAKASSAR Pg 3 QUANTITIES OF ACTUAL MIGRANTS (YEARLY) BY COHORT. Cohorts are indexed by age at end of period Rates assumed by age at time of migration were assigned to cohorts at mid-period and applied to the mid-period population of the same cohorts 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- AGE 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 FEMALES 0-4 25.3 26.8 26.3 24.8 23.9 24.3 25.4 5-9 79.6 119.5 126.6 124.2 117.3 113.0 114.6 10-14 88.6 74.3 111.5 118.2 116.0 109.6 105.5 15-19 72.4 70.9 59.4 89.3 94.6 92.8 87.7 20-24 94.5 75.5 74.0 62.0 93.2 98.7 96.9 25-29 142.6 132.3 105.8 103.7 86.9 130.7 138.5 30-34 201.7 218.6 202.9 162.4 159.1 133.5 200.6 35-39 195.1 252.5 273.7 254.2 203.5 199.5 167.4 40-44 144.6 199.3 258.2 280.0 260.2 208.4 204.3 45-49 89.6 120.9 166.8 216.1 234.5 218.0 174.7 50-54 50.2 65.3 88.2 121.7 157.8 171.4 159.4 55-59 27.3 34.3 44.7 60.4 83.5 108.3 117.7 60-64 15.6 19.2 24.1 31.5 42.6 58.9 76.6 65-69 9.6 11.9 14.6 18.5 24.1 32.7 45.4 70-74 6.0 7.5 9.3 11.5 14.6 19.1 26.0 75-79 3.1 4.3 5.4 6.7 8.3 10.6 13.9 80+ 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.7 3.4 4.3 5.4 TOTAL 1246.9 1434.6 1593.6 1687.9 1723.6 1733.7 1760.1 MALES 0-4 28.5 30.2 29.7 28.0 27.0 27.4 28.8 5-9 97.6 131.9 139.8 137.2 129.7 125.0 126.9 10-14 105.0 101.7 137.5 145.7 143.1 135.3 130.4 15-19 76.7 77.3 74.8 101.2 107.3 105.3 99.6 20-24 67.1 57.1 57.5 55.7 75.4 79.9 78.5 25-29 93.4 86.6 73.7 74.3 72.0 97.4 103.2 30-34 141.9 147.0 136.2 116.0 116.9 113.3 153.4 35-39 165.2 201.8 209.1 193.8 165.1 166.4 161.3 40-44 143.6 191.0 233.3 241.9 224.3 191.1 192.7 45-49 98.0 131.0 174.3 213.1 221.0 205.1 174.9 50-54 57.8 75.5 101.0 134.5 164.6 170.9 158.6 55-59 32.2 41.2 53.9 72.3 96.4 118.1 122.7 60-64 18.1 22.8 29.2 38.3 51.5 68.8 84.4 65-69 10.3 13.0 16.4 21.1 27.8 37.4 50.1 70-74 5.5 7.1 9.1 11.6 14.9 19.7 26.6 75-79 2.5 3.4 4.5 5.7 7.3 9.5 12.6 80+ .9 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.2 4.2 TOTAL 1144.4 1319.7 1481.5 1592.4 1646.7 1673.9 1708.8 GRAND TOTAL 2391.3 2754.3 3075.2 3280.2 3370.3 3407.6 3469.0 1PROYEKSI PENDUDUK MAKASSAR Pg 4 POPULATION PROJECTION FEMALES 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 FEMALES 0-4 53896.0 80919.8 85692.8 84071.2 79415.9 76462.6 77572.6 81214.8 0-4 5-9 64519.0 54061.0 81199.5 86019.5 84407.7 79747.4 76794.6 77921.6 5-9 10-14 66210.0 64816.5 54321.0 81604.4 86457.3 84845.2 80168.0 77206.1 10-14 15-19 83030.0 66385.3 65003.5 54489.3 81869.4 86749.8 85143.3 80459.5 15-19 20-24 89627.0 83155.4 66507.9 65143.2 54617.9 82078.3 86987.3 85391.2 20-24 25-29 82939.0 89851.8 83399.0 66728.1 65377.5 54828.6 82415.6 87365.1 25-29 30-34 64451.0 83389.0 90383.5 83929.9 67176.4 65837.7 55231.7 83045.3 30-34 35-39 47086.0 64870.6 83979.7 91070.8 84601.1 67737.6 66410.7 55730.1 35-39 40-44 35020.0 47257.1 65149.7 84392.0 91558.6 85088.6 68154.8 66844.0 40-44 45-49 26842.0 34871.6 47093.6 64970.3 84206.6 91403.7 84986.6 68104.1 45-49 50-54 21005.0 26406.3 34341.4 46421.5 64092.7 83127.6 90294.4 84008.2 50-54 55-59 16537.0 20336.5 25600.5 33334.5 45112.7 62351.2 80951.8 88014.1 55-59 60-64 12703.0 15640.4 19267.6 24294.1 31689.8 42956.2 59464.1 77315.4 60-64 65-69 9162.0 11546.9 14251.2 17595.7 22251.3 29102.7 39551.6 54882.0 65-69 70-74 5614.0 7771.8 9826.6 12164.9 15087.9 19158.5 25157.6 34315.6 70-74 75+ 5481.0 6960.2 9357.9 12159.2 15440.3 19443.8 24742.9 32248.0 75+ TOTAL 684122.0 758240.4 835375.5 908388.7 973363.2 1030919.0 1084028.0 1134065.0 TOTAL MALES 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 MALES 0-4 62502.0 84497.3 89515.1 87853.6 83042.4 80002.6 81208.7 85174.6 0-4 5-9 64710.0 62669.1 84749.4 89805.1 88159.4 83349.9 80315.8 81554.5 5-9 10-14 64584.0 65042.7 63001.3 85210.2 90304.9 88660.4 83833.0 80791.7 10-14 15-19 76024.0 64705.4 65178.2 63143.7 85417.0 90538.0 88902.3 84071.4 15-19 20-24 81905.0 75877.6 64595.1 65078.8 63058.1 85314.5 90442.7 88828.3 20-24 25-29 78942.0 81761.6 75763.3 64510.2 65005.1 62997.2 85245.6 90391.9 25-29 30-34 64734.0 79022.3 81870.6 75884.0 64628.7 65139.0 63140.5 85458.4 30-34 35-39 48854.0 64934.3 79300.6 82188.3 76204.1 64921.5 65453.4 63460.7 35-39 40-44 36619.0 48914.8 65056.9 79495.6 82434.5 76469.9 65178.5 65722.9 40-44 45-49 27846.0 36346.3 48596.6 64690.1 79112.3 82098.9 76213.3 64970.1 45-49 50-54 21297.0 27208.0 35561.4 47606.5 63446.4 77674.9 80690.0 74923.8 50-54 55-59 16162.0 20325.2 26016.7 34066.8 45684.4 60981.2 74769.5 77712.3 55-59 60-64 11780.0 14903.9 18794.8 24122.7 31666.8 42564.7 56942.8 69887.5 60-64 65-69 8022.0 10318.5 13111.6 16606.8 21401.5 28199.8 38039.5 50949.8 65-69 70-74 4776.0 6479.8 8388.0 10727.6 13669.8 17714.3 23464.3 31703.3 70-74 75+ 4221.0 5341.6 7126.5 9405.7 12266.2 15880.9 20716.0 27416.0 75+ TOTAL 672978.0 748348.5 826626.1 900395.6 965501.7 1022508.0 1074556.0 1123017.0 TOTAL GRAND TOTAL 1357100.0 1506589.0 1662002.0 1808784.0 1938865.0 2053427.0 2158584.0 2257082.0 GRAND TOTAL MIDPERIOD INDICES FOR FIVE-YEAR TIME PERIODS 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 POPULATION SIZE 1429892.0 1582389.0 1733840.0 1872696.0 1995324.0 2105349.0 2207284.0 POPULATION SIZE YEARLY BIRTHS 34112.7 36049.4 35300.1 33295.9 32014.5 32436.7 33918.6 YEARLY BIRTHS YEARLY DEATHS 6606.2 7721.1 9018.8 10560.1 12472.5 14813.0 17687.8 YEARLY DEATHS NET YEARLY MIGRANTS 2391.3 2754.3 3075.2 3280.2 3370.3 3407.6 3469.0 NET YEARLY MIGRANTS YEARLY RATES PER THOUSAND POPULATION GFR=BIRTHS/FEM(15-44) 81.5 81.1 78.4 74.7 72.1 73.2 75.1 GFR=BIRTHS/F(15-44) BIRTH RATE 23.9 22.8 20.4 17.8 16.0 15.4 15.4 BIRTH RATE DEATH RATE 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.6 6.3 7.0 8.0 DEATH RATE NATURAL INCREASE 19.2 17.9 15.2 12.1 9.8 8.4 7.4 NATURAL INCREASE NET MIGRATION 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 NET MIGRATION POP INCREASE 20.9 19.6 16.9 13.9 11.5 10.0 8.9 POP INCREASE 1PROYEKSI PENDUDUK MAKASSAR Pg 5 RATES OF CHANGE IN POPULATION BY AGE GROUP (Percent per year) 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- AGE 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 FEMALES 0-4 8.13 1.15 -.38 -1.14 -.76 .29 .92 5-9 -3.54 8.14 1.15 -.38 -1.14 -.75 .29 10-14 -.43 -3.53 8.14 1.16 -.38 -1.13 -.75 15-19 -4.47 -.42 -3.53 8.14 1.16 -.37 -1.13 20-24 -1.50 -4.47 -.41 -3.52 8.15 1.16 -.37 25-29 1.60 -1.49 -4.46 -.41 -3.52 8.15 1.17 30-34 5.15 1.61 -1.48 -4.45 -.40 -3.51 8.16 35-39 6.41 5.16 1.62 -1.47 -4.45 -.40 -3.51 40-44 5.99 6.42 5.18 1.63 -1.47 -4.44 -.39 45-49 5.23 6.01 6.44 5.19 1.64 -1.46 -4.43 50-54 4.58 5.25 6.03 6.45 5.20 1.65 -1.44 55-59 4.14 4.60 5.28 6.05 6.47 5.22 1.67 60-64 4.16 4.17 4.64 5.32 6.08 6.50 5.25 65-69 4.63 4.21 4.22 4.69 5.37 6.14 6.55 70-74 6.50 4.69 4.27 4.31 4.78 5.45 6.21 75+ 4.78 5.92 5.24 4.78 4.61 4.82 5.30 TOTAL 2.06 1.94 1.68 1.38 1.15 1.00 .90 MALES 0-4 6.03 1.15 -.37 -1.13 -.75 .30 .95 5-9 -.64 6.04 1.16 -.37 -1.12 -.74 .31 10-14 .14 -.64 6.04 1.16 -.37 -1.12 -.74 15-19 -3.22 .15 -.63 6.04 1.16 -.36 -1.12 20-24 -1.53 -3.22 .15 -.63 6.05 1.17 -.36 25-29 .70 -1.52 -3.22 .15 -.63 6.05 1.17 30-34 3.99 .71 -1.52 -3.21 .16 -.62 6.05 35-39 5.69 4.00 .72 -1.51 -3.20 .16 -.62 40-44 5.79 5.70 4.01 .73 -1.50 -3.20 .17 45-49 5.33 5.81 5.72 4.03 .74 -1.49 -3.19 50-54 4.90 5.35 5.83 5.74 4.05 .76 -1.48 55-59 4.58 4.94 5.39 5.87 5.78 4.08 .77 60-64 4.70 4.64 4.99 5.44 5.92 5.82 4.10 65-69 5.04 4.79 4.73 5.07 5.52 5.99 5.84 70-74 6.10 5.16 4.92 4.85 5.18 5.62 6.02 75+ 4.71 5.77 5.55 5.31 5.17 5.32 5.60 TOTAL 2.12 1.99 1.71 1.40 1.15 .99 .88 BOTH 2.09 1.96 1.69 1.39 1.15 1.00 .89 The quality of information on rates of increase by age is safeguarded when genuine irregularities of the age distribution at the base date are preserved, while irregularities due to age shifting and heaping are removed. 1PROYEKSI PENDUDUK MAKASSAR Pg 6 PROPORTIONS OF TOTAL POPULATION BY SEX (Percent) FEMALES 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 0-4 7.88 10.67 10.26 9.25 8.16 7.42 7.16 7.16 5-9 9.43 7.13 9.72 9.47 8.67 7.74 7.08 6.87 10-14 9.68 8.55 6.50 8.98 8.88 8.23 7.40 6.81 15-19 12.14 8.76 7.78 6.00 8.41 8.41 7.85 7.09 20-24 13.10 10.97 7.96 7.17 5.61 7.96 8.02 7.53 25-29 12.12 11.85 9.98 7.35 6.72 5.32 7.60 7.70 30-34 9.42 11.00 10.82 9.24 6.90 6.39 5.10 7.32 35-39 6.88 8.56 10.05 10.03 8.69 6.57 6.13 4.91 40-44 5.12 6.23 7.80 9.29 9.41 8.25 6.29 5.89 45-49 3.92 4.60 5.64 7.15 8.65 8.87 7.84 6.01 50-54 3.07 3.48 4.11 5.11 6.58 8.06 8.33 7.41 55-59 2.42 2.68 3.06 3.67 4.63 6.05 7.47 7.76 60-64 1.86 2.06 2.31 2.67 3.26 4.17 5.49 6.82 65-69 1.34 1.52 1.71 1.94 2.29 2.82 3.65 4.84 70-74 .82 1.02 1.18 1.34 1.55 1.86 2.32 3.03 75+ .80 .92 1.12 1.34 1.59 1.89 2.28 2.84 TOTAL 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 MALES 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 0-4 9.29 11.29 10.83 9.76 8.60 7.82 7.56 7.58 5-9 9.62 8.37 10.25 9.97 9.13 8.15 7.47 7.26 10-14 9.60 8.69 7.62 9.46 9.35 8.67 7.80 7.19 15-19 11.30 8.65 7.88 7.01 8.85 8.85 8.27 7.49 20-24 12.17 10.14 7.81 7.23 6.53 8.34 8.42 7.91 25-29 11.73 10.93 9.17 7.16 6.73 6.16 7.93 8.05 30-34 9.62 10.56 9.90 8.43 6.69 6.37 5.88 7.61 35-39 7.26 8.68 9.59 9.13 7.89 6.35 6.09 5.65 40-44 5.44 6.54 7.87 8.83 8.54 7.48 6.07 5.85 45-49 4.14 4.86 5.88 7.18 8.19 8.03 7.09 5.79 50-54 3.16 3.64 4.30 5.29 6.57 7.60 7.51 6.67 55-59 2.40 2.72 3.15 3.78 4.73 5.96 6.96 6.92 60-64 1.75 1.99 2.27 2.68 3.28 4.16 5.30 6.22 65-69 1.19 1.38 1.59 1.84 2.22 2.76 3.54 4.54 70-74 .71 .87 1.01 1.19 1.42 1.73 2.18 2.82 75+ .63 .71 .86 1.04 1.27 1.55 1.93 2.44 TOTAL 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 AGE 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 FEMALES 0-14 26.99 26.35 26.48 27.71 25.71 23.38 21.64 20.84 15-64 70.05 70.18 69.52 67.68 68.86 70.05 70.11 68.45 65+ 2.96 3.47 4.00 4.61 5.42 6.57 8.25 10.71 MALES 0-14 28.50 28.36 28.70 29.19 27.09 24.65 22.83 22.04 15-64 68.97 68.68 67.83 66.72 68.01 69.31 69.52 68.16 65+ 2.53 2.96 3.46 4.08 4.90 6.04 7.65 9.80 BOTH 0-14 27.74 27.35 27.59 28.45 26.40 24.01 22.23 21.44 15-64 69.52 69.44 68.68 67.20 68.44 69.68 69.82 68.31 65+ 2.75 3.21 3.73 4.35 5.16 6.31 7.95 10.26 'Both' is calculated from a table for both sexes which is not shown. MALES/FEMALES .984 .987 .990 .991 .992 .992 .991 .990
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