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FIVFIV 98d 01-12-2011 13:29:29 BALIKPAP.FIV INPUT CONTROL FILE FOR PROJECTION 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 12345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890 WEST YEAR.TITLE YR.2008.Kota Balikpapan INIT.POP INIT.F.A 16496.00 24825.00 24682.00 21106.00 24979.00 32323.00 30978.00 INIT.F.B 26225.00 21354.00 17161.00 12667.00 7646.00 4478.00 3391.00 INIT.F.C 2304.00 2523.00 INIT.M.A 18060.00 26978.00 26462.00 22789.00 26910.00 36095.00 35552.00 INIT.M.B 30262.00 22999.00 18974.00 15193.00 10830.00 5240.00 3450.00 INIT.M.C 1610.00 1785.00 MORTALITY MORT.EZ.F 72.84 72.94 73.05 73.16 73.26 73.36 73.47 MORT.EZ.M 70.10 70.19 70.27 70.34 70.42 70.58 70.60 FERTILITY TOTAL.FERT 2.3590 2.3670 2.3750 2.3840 2.3920 2.4000 2.4090 FERDIST1.7 7.4180 24.9260 27.5960 20.1780 10.6820 2.9670 6.2310 FEND MIGRATION RATES MIGRF1.7.A 17.40 11.20 8.14 21.27 39.23 29.14 13.49 MIGRF1.7.B 10.83 5.81 3.90 1.66 -1.31 .67 4.42 MIGRF1.7.C .87 -2.77 MIGRM1.7.A 16.67 12.94 6.58 21.24 42.96 26.62 17.16 MIGRM1.7.B 13.09 11.00 7.85 4.08 -.09 .57 -.58 MIGRM1.7.C .62 -.56 MEND.0 END PROJECTI 1Kota Balikpapan Pg 1 FERTILITY Sex ratio at birth: 105.0 Males per 100 Females DISTRIBUTION BY AGE OF FERTILITY (Percent) 2008- 2013- 2018- 2023- 2028- 2033- 2038- AGE 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 15-19 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 20-24 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 25-29 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 30-34 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 35-39 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 40-44 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 45-49 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY SCHEDULE 2008- 2013- 2018- 2023- 2028- 2033- 2038- AGE 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 15-19 .035 .035 .035 .035 .035 .036 .036 20-24 .118 .118 .118 .119 .119 .120 .120 25-29 .130 .131 .131 .132 .132 .132 .133 30-34 .095 .096 .096 .096 .097 .097 .097 35-39 .050 .051 .051 .051 .051 .051 .051 40-44 .014 .014 .014 .014 .014 .014 .014 45-49 .029 .029 .030 .030 .030 .030 .030 TOT*5=TFR 2.359 2.367 2.375 2.384 2.392 2.400 2.409 GRR 1.151 1.155 1.159 1.163 1.167 1.171 1.175 NRR 1.102 1.106 1.111 1.116 1.120 1.124 1.129 MEAN AGE 29.280 29.280 29.280 29.280 29.280 29.280 29.280 MORTALITY 2008- 2013- 2018- 2023- 2028- 2033- 2038- WEST 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 E(0) FEMALES 72.84 72.94 73.05 73.16 73.26 73.36 73.47 E(0) MALES 70.10 70.19 70.27 70.34 70.42 70.58 70.60 E(0) BOTH 71.44 71.53 71.63 71.72 71.81 71.94 72.00 IMR FEMALES 21.80 21.50 21.17 20.84 20.54 20.24 19.91 IMR MALES 25.03 24.68 24.37 24.09 23.78 23.16 23.08 IMR BOTH 23.46 23.13 22.81 22.51 22.20 21.73 21.53 E(5) FEMALES 69.78 69.86 69.94 70.02 70.10 70.17 70.26 E(5) MALES 67.24 67.31 67.36 67.41 67.46 67.58 67.59 E(5) BOTH 68.48 68.55 68.62 68.68 68.75 68.84 68.89 1Kota Balikpapan Pg 2 YEARLY MIGRANTS (NET) PER 1000 POPULATION: ASSUMPTIONS 2008- 2013- 2018- 2023- 2028- 2033- 2038- AGE 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 FEMALES 0-4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 5-9 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 10-14 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 15-19 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 20-24 39.2 39.2 39.2 39.2 39.2 39.2 39.2 25-29 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 30-34 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 35-39 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 40-44 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 45-49 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 50-54 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 55-59 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 60-64 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 65-69 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 70-74 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 75+ -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 MALES 0-4 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 5-9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 10-14 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 15-19 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 20-24 43.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 25-29 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 30-34 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 35-39 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 40-44 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 45-49 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 50-54 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 55-59 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 60-64 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 65-69 -.6 -.6 -.6 -.6 -.6 -.6 -.6 70-74 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 75+ -.6 -.6 -.6 -.6 -.6 -.6 -.6 1Kota Balikpapan Pg 3 QUANTITIES OF ACTUAL MIGRANTS (YEARLY) BY COHORT. Cohorts are indexed by age at end of period Rates assumed by age at time of migration were assigned to cohorts at mid-period and applied to the mid-period population of the same cohorts 2008- 2013- 2018- 2023- 2028- 2033- 2038- AGE 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 FEMALES 0-4 130.1 137.8 146.3 154.3 166.1 188.0 218.2 5-9 235.5 460.6 487.9 518.5 545.6 588.3 669.3 10-14 239.8 170.2 332.9 352.7 374.7 394.4 425.3 15-19 362.5 381.6 270.8 529.7 561.1 596.3 627.6 20-24 637.4 798.4 840.4 596.3 1166.6 1235.9 1313.4 25-29 852.0 826.0 1034.8 1089.2 773.0 1512.2 1602.2 30-34 687.1 619.0 600.2 751.9 791.5 561.8 1099.0 35-39 375.3 431.0 388.3 376.5 471.8 496.7 352.5 40-44 217.1 270.1 310.2 279.5 271.0 339.6 357.6 45-49 102.9 130.3 162.1 186.2 167.8 162.8 204.0 50-54 47.2 59.2 75.0 93.3 107.2 96.6 93.7 55-59 2.2 2.9 3.7 4.7 5.8 6.7 6.0 60-64 -2.4 -3.8 -5.1 -6.4 -8.1 -10.1 -11.7 65-69 10.9 17.6 28.1 37.8 47.5 60.2 75.0 70-74 8.3 10.1 16.4 26.2 35.3 44.4 56.3 75-79 -1.9 -2.4 -3.0 -4.8 -7.8 -10.4 -13.2 80+ -2.6 -3.1 -3.9 -4.8 -7.0 -10.9 -15.4 TOTAL 3901.3 4305.5 4684.9 4980.7 5462.2 6252.3 7059.8 MALES 0-4 130.4 138.2 146.6 154.6 166.5 188.5 218.7 5-9 266.8 498.3 527.9 560.9 590.2 636.4 724.3 10-14 263.0 188.3 351.6 372.5 395.8 416.5 449.2 15-19 367.4 391.9 280.6 524.0 555.2 589.9 620.9 20-24 729.4 902.8 962.9 689.4 1287.6 1364.2 1449.6 25-29 933.0 911.7 1128.4 1203.6 861.7 1609.6 1705.3 30-34 787.3 684.4 668.8 827.8 883.0 632.2 1180.9 35-39 535.5 598.9 520.6 508.8 629.7 671.8 481.0 40-44 362.4 454.1 507.9 441.6 431.6 534.2 569.9 45-49 214.8 296.2 371.2 415.3 361.1 352.9 436.9 50-54 111.5 139.0 191.7 240.3 268.9 233.8 228.6 55-59 29.6 36.9 46.1 63.5 79.7 89.2 77.6 60-64 2.5 3.4 4.2 5.3 7.3 9.1 10.2 65-69 .0 .0 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.2 70-74 .1 .1 .2 .2 .3 .3 .5 75-79 .0 .1 .1 .2 .3 .3 .4 80+ -.4 -.4 -.6 -.9 -1.5 -2.2 -2.9 TOTAL 4733.4 5243.7 5708.1 6007.0 6517.1 7326.7 8150.8 GRAND TOTAL 8634.7 9549.2 10393.0 10987.7 11979.2 13579.0 15210.7 1Kota Balikpapan Pg 4 POPULATION PROJECTION FEMALES 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 FEMALES 0-4 16496.0 32265.4 34178.4 36315.6 38219.1 41208.8 46878.1 54385.0 0-4 5-9 24825.0 17614.9 34455.5 36500.1 38784.2 40818.9 44013.9 50071.4 5-9 10-14 24682.0 25978.4 18433.8 36058.1 38198.8 40590.2 42720.6 46065.6 10-14 15-19 21106.0 26437.0 27826.5 19745.9 38626.1 40920.6 43483.9 45767.9 15-19 20-24 24979.0 24216.2 30334.2 31930.3 22659.1 44327.0 46962.4 49906.8 20-24 25-29 32323.0 29119.2 28231.8 35366.9 37230.4 26422.0 51691.5 54768.7 25-29 30-34 30978.0 35570.7 32047.6 31073.7 38930.4 40984.9 29088.9 56913.9 30-34 35-39 26225.0 32624.9 37465.1 33757.6 32734.9 41015.3 43183.6 30652.4 35-39 40-44 21354.0 27041.2 33643.6 38639.3 34819.5 33768.1 42314.0 44556.0 40-44 45-49 17161.0 21543.1 27284.1 33950.6 38997.3 35146.5 34089.5 42722.8 45-49 50-54 12667.0 16999.8 21344.5 27037.8 33650.6 38659.5 34848.3 33806.8 50-54 55-59 7646.0 12235.7 16425.3 20629.1 26139.1 32540.7 37394.2 33717.5 55-59 60-64 4478.0 7218.6 11556.3 15520.2 19501.0 24719.8 30786.2 35393.7 60-64 65-69 3391.0 4134.0 6668.4 10683.4 14358.4 18053.3 22899.9 28540.5 65-69 70-74 2304.0 2932.4 3578.5 5779.0 9269.0 12470.1 15695.2 19931.0 70-74 75+ 2523.0 3005.1 3726.4 4584.5 6690.8 10411.5 14742.0 19415.0 75+ TOTAL 273138.0 318936.6 367200.1 417572.1 468808.8 522057.3 580792.0 646614.8 TOTAL MALES 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 MALES 0-4 18060.0 33728.1 35729.7 37963.1 39950.2 43075.7 49019.6 56853.3 0-4 5-9 26978.0 19313.9 36071.3 38213.5 40603.5 42730.5 46077.2 52435.8 5-9 10-14 26462.0 28223.1 20205.7 37737.8 39979.7 42481.1 44708.3 48210.1 10-14 15-19 22789.0 28203.9 30081.9 21537.1 40225.3 42616.1 45284.8 47659.4 15-19 20-24 26910.0 26295.0 32544.0 34711.9 24852.5 46418.9 49180.6 52260.7 20-24 25-29 36095.0 31376.3 30660.3 37947.8 40476.7 28980.8 54132.8 57353.8 25-29 30-34 35552.0 39761.5 34565.1 33777.6 41807.5 44595.5 31932.3 59646.4 30-34 35-39 30262.0 37917.3 42409.5 36869.0 36030.8 44598.8 47578.1 34068.5 35-39 40-44 22999.0 31713.4 39739.8 44451.8 38647.5 37772.1 46762.3 49887.3 40-44 45-49 18974.0 23649.3 32615.1 40875.1 45727.1 39761.6 38871.3 48124.8 45-49 50-54 15193.0 18967.0 23645.7 32616.3 40883.4 45745.1 39792.5 38903.4 50-54 55-59 10830.0 14614.5 18250.6 22758.9 31400.8 39371.0 44077.6 38344.6 55-59 60-64 5240.0 10023.5 13532.5 16906.4 21090.3 29110.6 36529.6 40900.8 60-64 65-69 3450.0 4629.5 8862.4 11972.8 14966.4 18682.7 25821.6 32407.7 65-69 70-74 1610.0 2831.3 3803.5 7288.3 9854.7 12330.9 15423.0 21321.5 70-74 75+ 1785.0 2015.7 3011.8 4197.0 7295.7 10656.9 14105.8 18022.9 75+ TOTAL 303189.0 353263.4 405728.8 459824.3 513792.3 568928.3 629297.4 696401.3 TOTAL GRAND TOTAL 576327.0 672200.0 772928.9 877396.4 982601.0 1090986.0 1210089.0 1343016.0 GRAND TOTAL MIDPERIOD INDICES FOR FIVE-YEAR TIME PERIODS 2008- 2013- 2018- 2023- 2028- 2033- 2038- 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 POPULATION SIZE 622420.3 720807.1 823507.8 928509.9 1035376.0 1148995.0 1274821.0 POPULATION SIZE YEARLY BIRTHS 13283.0 14065.7 14940.1 15716.6 16940.8 19266.9 22343.8 YEARLY BIRTHS YEARLY DEATHS 2743.2 3469.2 4439.6 5663.4 7243.1 9025.2 10969.1 YEARLY DEATHS NET YEARLY MIGRANTS 8634.7 9549.2 10393.0 10987.7 11979.2 13579.0 15210.7 NET YEARLY MIGRANTS YEARLY RATES PER THOUSAND POPULATION GFR=BIRTHS/FEM(15-44) 80.0 77.2 78.6 79.5 78.4 79.6 82.9 GFR=BIRTHS/F(15-44) BIRTH RATE 21.3 19.5 18.1 16.9 16.4 16.8 17.5 BIRTH RATE DEATH RATE 4.4 4.8 5.4 6.1 7.0 7.9 8.6 DEATH RATE NATURAL INCREASE 16.9 14.7 12.8 10.8 9.4 8.9 8.9 NATURAL INCREASE NET MIGRATION 13.9 13.2 12.6 11.8 11.6 11.8 11.9 NET MIGRATION POP INCREASE 30.8 27.9 25.4 22.7 20.9 20.7 20.9 POP INCREASE 1Kota Balikpapan Pg 5 RATES OF CHANGE IN POPULATION BY AGE GROUP (Percent per year) 2008- 2013- 2018- 2023- 2028- 2033- 2038- AGE 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 FEMALES 0-4 13.42 1.15 1.21 1.02 1.51 2.58 2.97 5-9 -6.86 13.42 1.15 1.21 1.02 1.51 2.58 10-14 1.02 -6.86 13.42 1.15 1.21 1.02 1.51 15-19 4.50 1.02 -6.86 13.42 1.15 1.22 1.02 20-24 -.62 4.51 1.03 -6.86 13.42 1.16 1.22 25-29 -2.09 -.62 4.51 1.03 -6.86 13.42 1.16 30-34 2.76 -2.09 -.62 4.51 1.03 -6.86 13.42 35-39 4.37 2.77 -2.08 -.62 4.51 1.03 -6.85 40-44 4.72 4.37 2.77 -2.08 -.61 4.51 1.03 45-49 4.55 4.72 4.37 2.77 -2.08 -.61 4.51 50-54 5.88 4.55 4.73 4.38 2.78 -2.08 -.61 55-59 9.40 5.89 4.56 4.73 4.38 2.78 -2.07 60-64 9.55 9.41 5.90 4.57 4.74 4.39 2.79 65-69 3.96 9.56 9.43 5.91 4.58 4.76 4.40 70-74 4.82 3.98 9.59 9.45 5.93 4.60 4.78 75+ 3.50 4.30 4.14 7.56 8.84 6.96 5.51 TOTAL 3.10 2.82 2.57 2.31 2.15 2.13 2.15 MALES 0-4 12.49 1.15 1.21 1.02 1.51 2.59 2.97 5-9 -6.68 12.49 1.15 1.21 1.02 1.51 2.59 10-14 1.29 -6.68 12.49 1.15 1.21 1.02 1.51 15-19 4.26 1.29 -6.68 12.49 1.15 1.21 1.02 20-24 -.46 4.26 1.29 -6.68 12.49 1.16 1.21 25-29 -2.80 -.46 4.26 1.29 -6.68 12.50 1.16 30-34 2.24 -2.80 -.46 4.27 1.29 -6.68 12.50 35-39 4.51 2.24 -2.80 -.46 4.27 1.29 -6.68 40-44 6.43 4.51 2.24 -2.80 -.46 4.27 1.29 45-49 4.41 6.43 4.51 2.24 -2.80 -.45 4.27 50-54 4.44 4.41 6.43 4.52 2.25 -2.79 -.45 55-59 5.99 4.44 4.42 6.44 4.52 2.26 -2.79 60-64 12.97 6.00 4.45 4.42 6.45 4.54 2.26 65-69 5.88 12.99 6.02 4.46 4.44 6.47 4.54 70-74 11.29 5.90 13.01 6.03 4.48 4.47 6.48 75+ 2.43 8.03 6.64 11.06 7.58 5.61 4.90 TOTAL 3.06 2.77 2.50 2.22 2.04 2.02 2.03 BOTH 3.08 2.79 2.54 2.26 2.09 2.07 2.08 The quality of information on rates of increase by age is safeguarded when genuine irregularities of the age distribution at the base date are preserved, while irregularities due to age shifting and heaping are removed. 1Kota Balikpapan Pg 6 PROPORTIONS OF TOTAL POPULATION BY SEX (Percent) FEMALES 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 0-4 6.04 10.12 9.31 8.70 8.15 7.89 8.07 8.41 5-9 9.09 5.52 9.38 8.74 8.27 7.82 7.58 7.74 10-14 9.04 8.15 5.02 8.64 8.15 7.78 7.36 7.12 15-19 7.73 8.29 7.58 4.73 8.24 7.84 7.49 7.08 20-24 9.15 7.59 8.26 7.65 4.83 8.49 8.09 7.72 25-29 11.83 9.13 7.69 8.47 7.94 5.06 8.90 8.47 30-34 11.34 11.15 8.73 7.44 8.30 7.85 5.01 8.80 35-39 9.60 10.23 10.20 8.08 6.98 7.86 7.44 4.74 40-44 7.82 8.48 9.16 9.25 7.43 6.47 7.29 6.89 45-49 6.28 6.75 7.43 8.13 8.32 6.73 5.87 6.61 50-54 4.64 5.33 5.81 6.48 7.18 7.41 6.00 5.23 55-59 2.80 3.84 4.47 4.94 5.58 6.23 6.44 5.21 60-64 1.64 2.26 3.15 3.72 4.16 4.74 5.30 5.47 65-69 1.24 1.30 1.82 2.56 3.06 3.46 3.94 4.41 70-74 .84 .92 .97 1.38 1.98 2.39 2.70 3.08 75+ .92 .94 1.01 1.10 1.43 1.99 2.54 3.00 TOTAL 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 MALES 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 0-4 5.96 9.55 8.81 8.26 7.78 7.57 7.79 8.16 5-9 8.90 5.47 8.89 8.31 7.90 7.51 7.32 7.53 10-14 8.73 7.99 4.98 8.21 7.78 7.47 7.10 6.92 15-19 7.52 7.98 7.41 4.68 7.83 7.49 7.20 6.84 20-24 8.88 7.44 8.02 7.55 4.84 8.16 7.82 7.50 25-29 11.91 8.88 7.56 8.25 7.88 5.09 8.60 8.24 30-34 11.73 11.26 8.52 7.35 8.14 7.84 5.07 8.56 35-39 9.98 10.73 10.45 8.02 7.01 7.84 7.56 4.89 40-44 7.59 8.98 9.79 9.67 7.52 6.64 7.43 7.16 45-49 6.26 6.69 8.04 8.89 8.90 6.99 6.18 6.91 50-54 5.01 5.37 5.83 7.09 7.96 8.04 6.32 5.59 55-59 3.57 4.14 4.50 4.95 6.11 6.92 7.00 5.51 60-64 1.73 2.84 3.34 3.68 4.10 5.12 5.80 5.87 65-69 1.14 1.31 2.18 2.60 2.91 3.28 4.10 4.65 70-74 .53 .80 .94 1.59 1.92 2.17 2.45 3.06 75+ .59 .57 .74 .91 1.42 1.87 2.24 2.59 TOTAL 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 AGE 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 FEMALES 0-14 24.16 23.78 23.71 26.07 24.57 23.49 23.01 23.28 15-64 72.83 73.06 72.48 68.89 68.96 68.67 67.81 66.22 65+ 3.01 3.16 3.81 5.04 6.47 7.84 9.18 10.50 MALES 0-14 23.58 23.00 22.68 24.77 23.46 22.55 22.22 22.62 15-64 74.16 74.31 73.46 70.13 70.29 70.13 68.99 67.08 65+ 2.26 2.68 3.86 5.10 6.25 7.32 8.80 10.30 BOTH 0-14 23.86 23.37 23.17 25.39 23.99 23.00 22.59 22.94 15-64 73.53 73.72 73.00 69.54 69.65 69.43 68.42 66.67 65+ 2.61 2.91 3.84 5.07 6.35 7.57 8.98 10.40 'Both' is calculated from a table for both sexes which is not shown. MALES/FEMALES 1.110 1.108 1.105 1.101 1.096 1.090 1.084 1.077
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